Impact Factor:

8.97

DOI number:

10.1038/s42949-025-00245-5

Journal:

Nature npj urban sustainability

Place of Publication:

英国伦敦

Key Words:

Urban shrinkage（城市收缩） Spatial expansion（空间扩张） Stemming strategies（遏制策略） Gravity-networked spatial interaction zones（引力网络空间交互区） Spatial panel modeling（空间面板建模） Detroit（底特律）

Abstract:

This study introduces a new modeling paradigm called gravity-networked spatial interaction zonesbased
 spatial panel modeling (GSIZs-Spanel). Using Detroit as a case study, this paper investigates
urban shrinkage by integrating shrinkage driving factors, their regional interactions, networks of cities,
spatial processes, and longitudinal dynamics. Results suggest that high minority population
concentration and persistent poverty are the primary factors impacting Detroit’s inner-city shrinkage.
Demographics, economics, and development practices affect shrinkage in suburbs and surrounding
cities. Shrinkage spreads outwards like waves; different juxtapositions of driving factors affect
shrinkage resilience; spillover effects are particularly vibrant at 25–50 GSIZs; rightsizing is a rational
strategy, but it failed to work alone. Integrating spatial planning of driving factors, land uses, spillover
effects, rightsizing strategy, and regional collaboration among federal, regional, and local
organizations could moderate urban decline. GSIZs-Spanel, which was developed here, could be
applied in any U.S. city or other global city.

Indexed by:

Journal paper

ISSN No.:

2661-8001（在线版）

Translation or Not:

no

Date of Publication:

2025-07-08

Included Journals:

SCI、SSCI

Links to published journals:

https://www.nature.com/npj/urbansustainability