标题：
The Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Wuhan, China: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Mode
点击次数：
影响因子：
4.614
DOI码：
10.3390/ijerph13070722
发表刊物：
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
刊物所在地：
Switzerland
关键字：
climate change; distributed lag non-linear model; mortality; temperature.
摘要：
Less evidence concerning the association between ambient temperature and mortality is available in developing countries/regions, especially inland areas of China, and few previous studies have compared the predictive ability of different temperature indictors (minimum, mean, and maximum temperature) on mortality. We assessed the effects of temperature on daily mortality from 2003 to 2010 in Jiang'an District of Wuhan, the largest city in central China. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with both non-threshold and double-threshold distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to examine the associations between different temperature indictors and cause-specific mortality. We found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality in Wuhan. Double-threshold DLNM with mean temperature performed best in predicting temperature-mortality relationship. Cold effect was delayed, whereas hot effect was acute, both of which lasted for several days. For cold effects over lag 0-21 days, a 1 °C decrease in mean temperature below the cold thresholds was associated with a 2.39% (95% CI: 1.71, 3.08) increase in non-accidental mortality, 3.65% (95% CI: 2.62, 4.69) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 3.87% (95% CI: 1.57, 6.22) increase in respiratory mortality, 3.13% (95% CI: 1.88, 4.38) increase in stroke mortality, and 21.57% (95% CI: 12.59, 31.26) increase in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality. For hot effects over lag 0-7 days, a 1 °C increase in mean temperature above the hot thresholds was associated with a 25.18% (95% CI: 18.74, 31.96) increase in non-accidental mortality, 34.10% (95% CI: 25.63, 43.16) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 24.27% (95% CI: 7.55, 43.59) increase in respiratory mortality, 59.1% (95% CI: 41.81, 78.5) increase in stroke mortality, and 17.00% (95% CI: 7.91, 26.87) increase in IHD mortality. This study suggested that both low and high temperature were associated with increased mortality in Wuhan, and that mean temperature had better predictive ability than minimum and maximum temperature in the association between temperature and mortality.
合写作者：
Renjie Feng,Cunlu Li
论文类型：
期刊论文
通讯作者：
Lu Ma
学科门类：
医学
文献类型：
J
卷号：
13
期号：
7
字数：
6296
ISSN号：
1661-7827
是否译文：
否
发表时间：
2016-07-18
收录刊物：
SCI
发表时间：
2016-07-18
学科：
流行病与卫生统计学
所在单位：公共卫生学院